The triple lock mechanism sees the state pension increase every year whichever is greater of 2.5%, inflation or the average wage. This year, the measure was dropped in favor of a double lockdown due to the perceived unfairness of artificially inflated wage growth, and instead resulted in a 3.1% increase.
However, if he returns this year, pensioners are on track for a 10.1% increase, in line with inflation figures for the year to September.
The case is not black or white, and the British still remain in uncertain territory.
While former Prime Minister Liz Truss has said she is committed to politics, new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has given no such assurance.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and DWP Secretary Mel Stride flatly refused to address the issue, leaving many pensioners on edge and hoping for clarification in the next autumn statement.
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A recent analysis by the Bank of England predicted that inflation could drop to 7.9% by the third quarter of next year.
If the triple lockdown were to increase by 10.1% this year, the state’s new full pension would rise from £185.15 a week to £203.85 a week.
A further increase of 7.9% could mean a rise to £219.95 by 2024/25.
But those numbers are not guaranteed as the government continues to grapple with the future of politics.
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“Regardless of the outcome, triple locking does not work for everyone.
“Perhaps it is time to assess whether there is a fairer way to increase the state pension while preventing more people from falling into the net of poverty and having to choose between heating where to eat.”
